Neil Schemenauer's Web Log


February 09, 2006

Finance: inverted bond yield curve on horizon?

It looks like the US bond yield curve is getting very flat. According to some people, an inverted curve is a good indicator of an oncoming recession.

I'm curious as to who is buying these new 30 year bonds. 4.53% for 30 years seems like a pretty poor investment. If you can handle a little risk, there are a number of solid companies trading with a PE of less than 10. On the other side there are people buying stock that trades at 70 times earnings (requiring 5 year annual growth rates of about 50%, according to my quick calculation). I guess it takes all kinds to make the market.